Maps: Southern African Countries (Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia)
3. Precipitation adequacy
Territorial scope: group of countries
Themes: 2, 3, 4
Dataset description
The map set illustrates the spatial distribution of precipitation suitability, expressed as precipitation adequacy scores (0–100), for 11 regionally important crops: beans, cassava, cotton, groundnut, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, soybean, sweet potato, and tobacco. It compares these scores for the baseline period (1960–1990) with projections for 2050 under the AR5 RCP8.5 emissions scenario, using the average output of four GCMs: BCC_CSM1.1, BNU_ESM, CCCMA_CANESM2, and CESM1-BGC.
For each crop different evaluation criteria may apply. If more than one precipitation element is evaluated, the lowest value determines the precipitation adequacy score. Evaluation is according to a rating scale based on Sys et al. (1993)*.
This map set is included in Publication 115b (2018). For methodological details and further information, including interpretations of the various maps, is referred to the publication.
Precipitation adequacy maps
Precipitation adequacy for beans
Evaluated element:
• total precipitation of the optimal 4-month period between November and May (in mm)
SAC03.01. Precipitation adequacy for beans, baseline period 1960-1990
SAC03.02. Precipitation adequacy for beans, 2050 GCM BCC-CSM 1.1 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.03. Precipitation adequacy for beans, 2050 GCM BNU-ESM (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.04. Precipitation adequacy for beans, 2050 GCM CCCMA-CANESM2 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.05. Precipitation adequacy for beans, 2050 GCM CESM1-BGC (emission scenario RCP8.5)
Precipitation adequacy for cassava
Evaluated elements:
• annual precipitation total (in mm)
• duration of the dry period: the period (in days) with P/PET <0.5
SAC03.06. Precipitation adequacy for cassava, baseline period 1960-1990
SAC03.07. Precipitation adequacy for cassava, 2050 GCM BCC-CSM 1.1 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.08. Precipitation adequacy for cassava, 2050 GCM BNU-ESM (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.09. Precipitation adequacy for cassava, 2050 GCM CCCMA-CANESM2 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.10. Precipitation adequacy for cassava, 2050 GCM CESM1-BGC (emission scenario RCP8.5)
Precipitation adequacy for cotton
Evaluated elements:
• total precipitation of the optimal 5-month period between December and May (in mm)
• precipitation in the optimal 6th month of the growth cycle (May or June)
SAC03.11. Precipitation adequacy for cotton, baseline period 1960-1990
SAC03.12. Precipitation adequacy for cotton, 2050 GCM BCC-CSM 1.1 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.13. Precipitation adequacy for cotton, 2050 GCM BNU-ESM (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.14. Precipitation adequacy for cotton, 2050 GCM CCCMA-CANESM2 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.15. Precipitation adequacy for cotton, 2050 GCM CESM1-BGC (emission scenario RCP8.5)
Precipitation adequacy for groundnut
Evaluated elements:
• total precipitation of the optimal 4-month period between January and May (in mm)
• precipitation in the optimal 4th month of the growth cycle (April or May)
SAC03.16. Precipitation adequacy for groundnut, baseline period 1960-1990
SAC03.17. Precipitation adequacy for groundnut, 2050 GCM BCC-CSM 1.1 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.18. Precipitation adequacy for groundnut, 2050 GCM BNU-ESM (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.19. Precipitation adequacy for groundnut, 2050 GCM CCCMA-CANESM2 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.20. Precipitation adequacy for groundnut, 2050 GCM CESM1-BGC (emission scenario RCP8.5)
Precipitation adequacy for maize
Evaluated element:
• total precipitation of the optimal 4-month period between November and May (in mm)
SAC03.21. Precipitation adequacy for maize, baseline period 1960-1990
SAC03.22. Precipitation adequacy for maize, 2050 GCM BCC-CSM 1.1 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.23. Precipitation adequacy for maize, 2050 GCM BNU-ESM (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.24. Precipitation adequacy for maize, 2050 GCM CCCMA-CANESM2 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.25. Precipitation adequacy for maize, 2050 GCM CESM1-BGC (emission scenario RCP8.5)
Precipitation adequacy for millet
Evaluated element:
total precipitation of the optimal 3-month period between November and May (in mm)
SAC03.26. Precipitation adequacy for millet, baseline period 1960-1990
SAC03.27. Precipitation adequacy for millet, 2050 GCM BCC-CSM 1.1 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.28. Precipitation adequacy for millet, 2050 GCM BNU-ESM (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.29. Precipitation adequacy for millet, 2050 GCM CCCMA-CANESM2 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.30. Precipitation adequacy for millet, 2050 GCM CESM1-BGC (emission scenario RCP8.5)
Precipitation adequacy for rice
Evaluated elements:
• total precipitation of the optimal 3-month period between November and May (in mm)
• precipitation in optimal 4th month of the crop cycle (February to June)
SAC03.31. Precipitation adequacy for rice, baseline period 1960-1990
SAC03.32. Precipitation adequacy for rice, 2050 GCM BCC-CSM 1.1 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.33. Precipitation adequacy for rice, 2050 GCM BNU-ESM (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.34. Precipitation adequacy for rice, 2050 GCM CCCMA-CANESM2 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.35. Precipitation adequacy for rice, 2050 GCM CESM1-BGC (emission scenario RCP8.5)
Precipitation adequacy for sorghum
Evaluated element:
• total precipitation of the optimal 4-month period between November and May (in mm)
SAC03.36. Precipitation adequacy for sorghum, baseline period 1960-1990
SAC03.37. Precipitation adequacy for sorghum, 2050 GCM BCC-CSM 1.1 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.38. Precipitation adequacy for sorghum, 2050 GCM BNU-ESM (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.39. Precipitation adequacy for sorghum, 2050 GCM CCCMA-CANESM2 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.40. Precipitation adequacy for sorghum, 2050 GCM CESM1-BGC (emission scenario RCP8.5)
Precipitation adequacy for soybean
Evaluated element:
• total precipitation of the optimal 4-month period between January and May (in mm)
SAC03.41. Precipitation adequacy for soybean, baseline period 1960-1990
SAC03.42. Precipitation adequacy for soybean, 2050 GCM BCC-CSM 1.1 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.43. Precipitation adequacy for soybean, 2050 GCM BNU-ESM (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.44. Precipitation adequacy for soybean, 2050 GCM CCCMA-CANESM2 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.45. Precipitation adequacy for soybean, 2050 GCM CESM1-BGC (emission scenario RCP8.5)
Precipitation adequacy for sweet potato
Evaluated element:
• annual precipitation total (in mm)
SAC03.46. Precipitation adequacy for sweet potato, baseline period 1960-1990
SAC03.47. Precipitation adequacy for sweet potato, 2050 GCM BCC-CSM 1.1 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.48. Precipitation adequacy for sweet potato, 2050 GCM BNU-ESM (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.49. Precipitation adequacy for sweet potato, 2050 GCM CCCMA-CANESM2 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.50. Precipitation adequacy for sweet potato, 2050 GCM CESM1-BGC (emission scenario RCP8.5)
Precipitation adequacy for tobacco
Evaluated element:
• total precipitation of the optimal 4-month period between November and May (in mm)
SAC03.51. Precipitation adequacy for tobacco, baseline period 1960-1990
SAC03.52. Precipitation adequacy for tobacco, 2050 GCM BCC-CSM 1.1 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.53. Precipitation adequacy for tobacco, 2050 GCM BNU-ESM (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.54. Precipitation adequacy for tobacco, 2050 GCM CCCMA-CANESM2 (emission scenario RCP8.5)
SAC03.55. Precipitation adequacy for tobacco, 2050 GCM CESM1-BGC (emission scenario RCP8.5)
* Reference: Sys, C., Van Ranst, E., Debaveye, J. and Beernaert,F. 1993. Land evaluation. Part III. Crop Requirements. Agricultural Publications No. 7, General Administration for Development Cooperation, Brussels, Belgium,199 pp.
SAC03