
Publications: 2011-Now

119 E. De Pauw. 2025. Een blik in de diepte: hoe de ondergrond vorm gaf aan de Vlaamse Ardennen. 2nd edition. PavoCarto,
Type: on-line publication (in Dutch), open access

118 F. Ziadat, E. De Pauw, F. Nachtergaele and T. Fetsi. 2021. A Land Resources Planning Toolbox to Promote Sustainable Land Management. Sustainable Agriculture Research; Vol. 10, No. 1; 2021, pp. 73-82.
Type: journal article, open access

117 E. De Pauw & S. Ramasamy. 2020. Rapid detection of stressed agricultural environments in Africa under climatic change 2000–2050 using agricultural resource indices and a hotspot mapping approach. Weather and Climate Extremes 27 (2020) 100211.
Type: journal article, open access

116 De Pauw, E., Ghasemi Dehkordi, V.R., and Ghaffari, A. 2018. Agroecological Zones. In M.H. Roozitalab, H. Siadat and A. Farshad (Eds.) “The Soils of Iran”. Springer, pp. 163-173.
Type: book chapter, private access (see Terms of Use)
Abstract
Although Iran consists almost entirely of drylands, it has a high diversity in agro-ecologies
and agricultural systems, which has major consequences for agricultural land use planning
and environmental management. The key determinants of this diversity are climate,
landscapes, soils and water for irrigation. An agro-ecological zones (AEZs) approach is
able to capture adequately the ecological diversity as it impacts the potential performance of
agriculture and provides a suitable integrated framework for country-level agricultural
planning. This chapter describes the method used to integrate national-level datasets on
climate, terrain, soils and land use into an agro-ecological zones map of Iran consisting of
688 mapping units. Of these, 92 agro-ecological zones cover 80% of Iran, with the
remainder 596 AEZs representing ‘niche’ agricultural environments. A policy implication
is that agricultural research and planning need to promote diverse farming and production
systems, each fitting well into each particular environment.

115b De Pauw, E. 2018. Land suitability assessment for analysis of vulnerability and potentialities under climatic change in Africa: Malawi – Mozambique – Zambia. 118 pp., 543 maps.
Type: technical report, made available online in 2025, open access

115 De Pauw, E. 2018. Lesotho: Land suitability assessment for analysis of vulnerability and potentialities under climatic change. Consultant’s report. 171 pp., 119 maps.
Type: technical report, made available online in 2025, open access

114 F. Ziadat, S. Bunning and E. De Pauw. 2017. Land resource planning for sustainable land management. Working paper 14. Land and Water Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 68 pp.
Type: Working paper

113 De Pauw, E. 2016. Estimating country-level maize production under climate change: An impact assessment based on the integration of historical crop production data, a climate productivity indicator, and AR5 climate change scenarios. Consultant’s report. 35 pp.; 94 maps.
Type: technical report, made available online in 2025, open access

112 De Pauw, E. 2016. Developing a high-resolution geospatial database for Africa: Part 5. Country case studies of changes in the land resource base for agriculture under climate change (Burkina Faso, Burundi, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania, Zimbabwe). Development of Medium-Term Warning System for Africa, CLIMAFRICA Project. Consultant’s report. 104 pp; 295 on-line maps.
Type: technical report, made available online in 2025, open access

111 De Pauw, E. 2015. Developing a high-resolution geospatial database for Africa: Part 4. Hotspots of natural resource availability for agriculture under different climate change scenarios. Development of Medium-Term Warning System for Africa, CLIMAFRICA Project. Consultant’s report. 90 pp; 62 maps.
Type: technical report, made available online in 2025, open access

110 P. Hawinkel, E. De Pauw & J. Deckers. 2015. Probabilistic soil mapping by Bayesian inference to assess suitability for derocking in northwest Syria. Soil Use and Management, Volume 32, Issue 1, March 2016, pp 137–149.
Type: journal article, private access (see Terms of Use)
Abstract
Land reclamation by rock removal has wide potential in areas with shallow or rocky soils. In
northwest Syria, this practice is hindered in its implementation by a lack of physical soil suitability
data, principally soil rockiness and soil depth to hard rock. These soil properties were surveyed in a
limited study area, resulting in a hard-boundary thematic soil map (64–94% accuracy per property).
Bayesian inference is proposed as a low-cost upscaling method that yields a set of pixel-based
probability maps, providing improved input for spatial decision support models. Whereas the
achieved spatial upscaling (from 2510 to 19 100 ha) outweighed the decrease in overall accuracy
(down to 26–57%), probability maps require dedicated validation and manipulation procedures. This
research contributes to methods for the creation, validation and interpretation of probabilistic soil
property maps for quantitative land evaluation. First, we evaluated three postprocessing and
validation methods for probabilistic soil property maps, identifying the use of ‘prediction rates’ as the
best approach in a spatial planning context. Next, we demonstrated how the maps can support
decision-making for land management activities by simulating the expected losses and gains from
interventions, in a decision-theoretic approach. Based on the simulations, the investments in largescale
derocking projects in northwest Syria will pay off in terms of increased agricultural productivity
in less than 10 years.

109 E. De Pauw, M. Saba and S. Ali. 2015. Mapping climate change in Iraq and Jordan. ICARDA Working Paper 27, 141 pp., ISBN 92-91274739
Type: research report, open access

108 Implementation Team. 2015. eAtlas of Climate Change in Iraq and Jordan. Project “Improving food security and climate change adaptability of livestock producers using the Rainfed Barley-based system in Iraq and Jordan” (IFAD Grant 1240-ICARDA).
Type: on-line atlas, open access

107 A. Bari, H. Khazaei, F.L. Stoddard, K. Street, M.J. Sillanpȁȁ, Y.P. Chaubey, S. Dayanandan, D.T.F. Endresen, E. De Pauw, A.B. Damania. 2015. In silico evaluation of plant genetic resources to search for traits for adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change, Volume 134, Issue 4, pp 667–680.
Type: journal article, private access (see Terms of Use)
Abstract
Plant genetic resources display patterns resulting from ecological and coevolutionary processes. Such patterns are instrumental in tracing the origin and diversity of crops and locating adaptive traits. With climate change and the anticipated increase in demand for food, new crop varieties will be needed to perform under unprecedented climatic conditions. In the present study, we explored genetic resources patterns to locate traits of adaptation to drought and to maximize the utilization of plant genetic resources lacking ex ante evaluation for emerging climate conditions. This approach is based on the use of mathematical models to predict traits as response variables driven by stochastic ecological and coevolutionary processes. The high congruence of metrics between model predictions and empirical trait evaluations confirms in silico evaluation as an effective tool to manage large numbers of crop accessions lacking ex ante evaluation. This outcome will assist in developing cultivars adaptable to various climatic conditions and in the ultimate use of genetic resources to sustain agricultural productivity under conditions of climate change.

106 De Pauw, E. 2014. Developing a high-resolution geospatial database for Africa: Part 3. Africa Crop Atlas. Development of Medium-Term Warning System for Africa, CLIMAFRICA Project. Consultant’s report. 12 pp; 178 maps.
Type: technical report, made available online in 2025, open access

105 De Pauw, E. 2014. Developing a high-resolution geospatial database for Africa: Part 2. Downscaling low-resolution gridded climatic data to landscape level. Development of Medium-Term Warning System for Africa, CLIMAFRICA Project. Consultant’s report. 32 pp; 40 maps.
Type: technical report, made available online in 2025, open access

104 A. Bari, A. Amri, K. Street, M. Mackay, E. De Pauw, R. Sanders, K. Nazari, B. Humeid, J. Konopka, F. Alo. 2014. Predicting resistance to stripe (yellow) rust (Puccinia striiformis) in wheat genetic resources using focused identification of germplasm strategy. The Journal of Agricultural Science / Volume 152 / Issue 06 / pp 906-916.
Type: journal article, private access (see Terms of Use)
Abstract
Stripe rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (Pst), is a major wheat disease that can inflict yield losses of up to 70% on susceptible varieties under favourable environmental conditions. The timely identification of plant genetic resources likely to possess novel resistance to this disease would facilitate the rapid development of resistant wheat varieties. The focused identification of germplasm strategy (FIGS) approach was used to predict stripe rust resistance in a collection of wheat landraces conserved at ICARDA genebank. Long-term climate data for the collection sites, from which these accessions originated and stripe rust evaluation scores for one group of accessions were presented to three different non-linear models to explore the trait×collection site environment interactions. Patterns in the data detected by the models were used to predict stripe rust resistance in a second and different set of accessions. The results of the prediction were then tested against actual evaluation scores of the disease in the field. The study mimics the real scenario where requests are made to plant genetic resources curators to provide accessions that are likely to possess variation for specific traits such as disease resistance.
The models used were able to identify stripe rust-resistant accessions with a high degree of accuracy. Values as high as 0·75 for area under the curve and 0·45 for Kappa statistics, which quantify the agreement between the models’ predictions and the curator’s disease scores, were achieved. This demonstrates a strong environmental component in the geographic distribution of resistance genes and therefore supports the theoretical basis for FIGS.
It is argued that FIGS will improve the rate of gene discovery and efficiency of mining genetic resource collections for adaptive traits by reducing the number of accessions that are normally required for evaluation to identify such variation.

103 W. Wu, A.S. Mhaimeed, W.M. Al-Shafie, F. Ziadat, B. Dhehibi, V. Nangia, E. De Pauw. 2014. Mapping soil salinity changes using remote sensing in Central Iraq. Geoderma Regional 2–3 (2014) 21–31
Type: journal article, private access (see Terms of Use)
Abstract
Salinization is a common problem for agriculture in dryland environments and it has greatly affected land productivity and even caused cropland abandonment in Central and Southern Iraq. Hence it is of pressing importance to quantify the spatial distribution of salinity and its changing trend in space and time and ascertain the driving forces thereof. This study aims at such a diachronic salinity mapping and analysis using multitemporal remote sensing taking a pilot site, the Dujaila area in Central Iraq, as an example. For this purpose, field survey and soil sampling were conducted in the 2011–2012 period, and a multitemporal remote sensing dataset consisting of satellite imagery dated 1988–1993, 1998–2002, and 2009–2012 was prepared. An innovative processing approach, the multiyear maxima-based modeling approach, was proposed to develop remote sensing salinity models. After evaluation of their suitability, the relevant models were applied to the images for multitemporal salinity mapping, quantification, and change tracking in space and time. The driving causes of salinization in the study area were evaluated. The results reveal that the developed salinity models can reliably predict salinity with an accuracy of 82.57%, indicating that our mapping methodology is relevant and extendable to other similar environments. In addition, salinity has experienced significant changes in the past 30 years in Dujaila, especially, very strongly salinized land got continuously expanded, and all these changes are related to land use practices and management of farmers, which are closely associated with the macroscopic socioeconomic environment of the country.

102 W. Wu , E. De Pauw & C. Zucca. 2013. Using remote sensing to assess impacts of land management policies in the Ordos rangelands in China. International Journal of Digital Earth, DOI: 10.1080/17538947.2013.825656.
Type: journal article, open access

101 W. Wu , E. De Pauw & Ulf Helldén. 2013. Assessing woody biomass in African tropical savannahs by multi-scale remote sensing, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 34:13, 4525-4549
Type: journal article, private access (see Terms of Use)
Abstract
Woody biomass production is a critical indicator in evaluation of land use management and the dynamics of the global carbon cycle (sequestration/emission) in terrestrial ecosystems. The objective of the present study was to develop, through a case study in Sudan, an operational multiscale remote-sensing-based methodology for large-scale estimation of woody biomass in tropical savannahs.
Woody biomass estimation models obtained by different authors from destructive field measurements in different tropical savannah ecosystems were expressed as functions of tree canopy cover (CC). The field-measured CC data were used for developing regression equations with atmospherically corrected and reflectance-based vegetation indices derived from Landsat ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) imagery. Among a set of vegetation indices, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) provided the best correlation with CC (R2 = 0.91) and was hence selected for woodland woody biomass estimation. After validation of the CC-NDVI model and its applicability to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, time-series MODIS NDVI data (MOD13Q1) were used to partition the woody component from the herbaceous component for sparse woodlands, woodlands and forests defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations Land Cover Map. Following the weighting of the estimation models based on the dominant woody species in each vegetation community, NDVI-based woody biomass models were applied according to their weighted ratios to the decomposed summer and autumn woody NDVI images in all vegetation communities in the whole of Sudan taking the year 2007, for example.
The results were found to be in good agreement with those from other authors obtained by either field measurements or other remote sensing methods using MODIS and Lidar data. It is concluded that the proposed approach is operational and can be applied for a reliable large-scale assessment of woody biomass at a ground resolution of 250 m in tropical savannah woodlands of any month or season.

100 De Pauw, E. 2013. Developing a high-resolution geospatial database for Africa: Part 1. Using GIS to assess medium-term vulnerabilities to food and water resources in Africa. Development of Medium-Term Warning System for Africa, CLIMAFRICA Project. Consultant’s report. 35 pp; 158 maps.
Type: technical report, made available online in 2025, open access

99 E. De Pauw and A. Al Bueishi. 2013. Agricultural Regions of Libya: an introduction to Libya’s agricultural environments. ARC Libya – ICARDA Collaborative Program, ICARDA, 205 pp.
Type: working paper, made available online in 2025, open access

98 Endresen, D.T.F., K. Street, M. Mackay, A. Bari, A.Amri, E. De Pauw, K. Nazari, and A. Yahyaoui. 2012. Sources of resistance to Stem Rust (UG99) in bread wheat and durum wheat identified using Focused Identification of Germplasm Strategy. Crop Sci. 52:1–10 (2012). doi: 10.2135/cropsci2011.08.0427.
Type: journal article, private access (see Terms of Use)
Abstract
The focused identification of germplasm strategy (FIGS) has been validated using predictive computer models in simulation studies to predict a priori known trait soores. This study was designed as a “blind” study where the person calculating the computer model did not know the actual trait scores. This study design provides a more realistic test of the predictive capacity of the FIGS approach compared to previous studies. Furthermore, this study also explored the suitability of FIGS for the identification of resistance in bread wheat {Triticum aestivum L. subsp. aestivum) and durum wheat [Triticum turgidum L. subsp. durum (Desf.) Husn.] to Ug99—a strain of stem rust {Puccinia graminis Pers. f. sp. tritici Eriks. & Henn.) and typified to race TTKSK. The predictions were validated against a dataset with the screening of wheat accessions conducted in Yemen in 2008. Only a small training set representing 20% of the trait soreening results was disclosed to the person conducting the data analysis for the calibration of the prediction model. The hit rate for identification of Ug99-resistant accessions was more than two times higher when using the FIGS approach compared to a random selection of accessions. These results suggested that FIGS was well suited for the identification of samples with resistance to fungal pathogens. It is therefore recommended that FIGS approach be used as a complement to expert knowledge and experience when selecting accessions for plant breeding and crop research activities.

97 E. De Pauw. 2012. Classification and characterization of the highlands of North Africa, West Asia and Central Asia: an overview. Technical Report, ICARDA, Syria, 49 pp.
in M. H. Roozitalab, H. Serghini, A. Keshavarz, V. Eser and E. De Pauw. 2013. Elements of Research Strategy and Priorities for Sustainable Agricultural Development of Highlands in Central, West Asia and North Africa. ICARDA Review Report, 228 pp.
Type: working paper, made available online in 2025, open access

96 E. De Pauw. 2012. Assessing potential for water harvesting in Zoba Northern Red Sea, Eritrea. Final Technical Report, ICARDA, Syria, 97 pp., 29 maps
Type: technical report, made available online in 2025, open access

95 E. De Pauw and Weicheng Wu. 2012. Poverty Assessment in Sudan: Mapping natural resource potential. ICARDA, Aleppo, Syria. vi + 33 pp. ISBN: 92-9127-263-9.
Type: technical report, open access

94 E. De Pauw, W. Göbel and F. Delobel. 2012. Using GIS to develop a baseline dataset for planning adaptation strategies to climate change in Central Asia and Northwest China. Final Report for Project “Adaptation to Climate Change in Central Asia and China”, under RETA 6439: Twelfth agriculture and natural resources research at international agricultural research centers – component 1. ICARDA, Syria, 107 pp.
Type: technical report, made available online in 2025, open access

93 F.Delobel, E. De Pauw and W.Göbel 2011. Generating a high-resolution climate raster dataset for climate change impact assessment in Central Asia and NW China. in Solh, M. and Saxena, M.C. (eds) 2011. Food security and climate change in dry areas: proceedings of an International Conference, 1-4 February 2010, Amman, Jordan. PO Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria: International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA). viii + 369 pp.
Type: conference paper, open access

92 A. Gaffari, E. De Pauw and S.A. Mirghasemi 2011. Land suitability study under current and climate change scenarios in the Karkheh river basin, Iran. in Solh, M. and Saxena, M.C. (eds) 2011. Food security and climate change in dry areas: proceedings of an International Conference, 1-4 February 2010, Amman, Jordan. PO Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria: International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA). viii + 369 pp.
Type: conference paper, open access

91 R. Sommer and E. De Pauw 2011. Soil carbon sequestration – can it take the heat of global warming?
in Solh, M. and Saxena, M.C. (eds) 2011. Food security and climate change in dry areas: proceedings of an International Conference, 1-4 February 2010, Amman, Jordan. PO Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria: International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA). viii + 369 pp.
Type: conference paper, open access

90 Sommer, R. and E. De Pauw. 2011. Organic carbon in soils of Central Asia – status quo and potentials for sequestration. Plant and Soil, 10.1007/s11104-010-0479-y [ICARDA Paper of the Year 2012]
Type: journal article, private access (see Terms of Use)
Abstract
Expectations have been raised that carbon sequestration in soils could provide a short-term bridge to reduce the impacts of increasing carbon emissions until low-carbon technologies are available.
To assess the role of Central Asia in this regard, the organic carbon in soils of Central Asia and losses in response to land use were quantified in a spatially explicit way. Based on literature information on soil organic carbon contents and in combination with the FAO-UNESCO Soil Map of the Word, the organic carbon stocks in the upper 30 cm of native soils of Central Asia were estimated to amount to 20,17± 4,03 Pg. The extent of conversion of native land into agricultural land and the degradation of rangelands was assessed by a land use land cover change map of the region. This type of land use (change) was responsible for a reduction of the soil organic carbon by about 828±166 Tg C, or on average 4.1% of the total stocks. To this reduction, degradation of rangeland (observed on 4.9 Mha) with 50 Tg, contributed only 6%. Most of the losses resulted from past conversion of rangelands into rainfed or irrigated agricultural land in the north of Kazakhstan. Hotspots of high soil organic matter depletion were former wetlands, drained for cultivation during the last decades. Assuming that improved agronomic and grazing management could be put in place and that therewith SOC levels in all of Central Asia’s cropland and degraded rangeland could be brought back to native levels in the next 50 years, each year 16.6 Tg C could be sequestered. This is equal to the sizeable amount of 15.5% of the 2004 annual anthropogenic C-emissions of the five Central Asian countries (107 Tg C yr−1). However, Central Asia contributed only 1.4% of CO2 that is set free worldwide by fossil fuel burning. Therefore, the mitigation effect on rising atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change of such ambitious sequestration plans, if put into practice, would be hardly notable. The central Asian example shows that, unfortunately, the strategy of soil C sequestration as a stand-alone measure is not a viable bridge to a future in which alternative energy source can substitute fossil fuel burning, but can only be part of a set of mitigating measures.

89 De Pauw, E. and Göbel, W. 2011. Climate change in drylands: from assessment methods to adaptation strategies. In J.L. Araus and G.A. Slafer (Eds.). Crop Stress Management & Global Climate Change. CABI Climate Change Series 2, pp. 15-36.
Type: book chapter, private access (see Terms of Use)
Abstract
Based on climate change projections from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the drylands surrounding the Mediterranean are expected to experience some of the world’s most significant precipitation declines. This chapter examines this vulnerable dryland region, highlighting how the continuity between current climate trends and near-future projections can inform the development of land, water, and crop management practices to address the challenges of climate change.
Analysis of gridded precipitation data from the GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Product (Version 4) for the period 1901–2007 reveals a clear and often highly significant negative precipitation trend, despite high year-to-year variability. The magnitude of this trend over the past century closely aligns with projections from most General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Mediterranean region in the coming decades. This alignment suggests that climate change forces have been active in the region for at least a century, with human activities further intensifying an existing trend.
The region’s diverse agricultural systems, adapted to specific agroecological niches and climatic constraints, offer valuable opportunities for adaptation to climate change. A detailed evaluation of the coping mechanisms employed in these systems can inform the refinement of established dryland management principles, ultimately helping to “climate-proof” agricultural systems across the Mediterranean.

88 Hodson, D. and E. De Pauw. 2011. Chapter 6. Use of GIS applications to combat the threat of emerging virulent wheat stem rust races. In S.A. Clay (Ed.).“GIS applications in Agriculture: Invasive Species”. CRC Press, Taylor and Francis, LLC, ISBN: 978-14-200-7880-0
Type: book chapter, private access (see Terms of Use)
Abstract
Historically, wheat stem rust (Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici) was the most feared pathogen affecting wheat cultivation. For over 30 years, effective genetic resistance has kept the disease under control. The identification of new, virulent races, typified by the Ug99 lineage, in East Africa during the late 1990s, has made wheat stem rust once again a cause for global concern. The nature of the threat posed by new virulent races of wheat stem rust is outlined in this chapter. Using the Ug99 lineage of stem rust races as an example, the ways in which GIS/geospatial technologies are being applied to support the global efforts to combat this reemerging threat are described.
GIS is playing a crucial role because most of the critical factors involved with occurrence, movements, and establishment of the disease are inherently spatial in nature. International collaborative efforts are now underway to develop a global cereal rust monitoring and surveillance system, which is underpinned by GIS. Progress and challenges surrounding these international efforts are described.

87 M. Pala, T. Oweis, B. Benli, E. De Pauw, M. El Mourid, M. Karrou, M. Jamal, N. Zencirci. 2011. Assessment of wheat yield gap in the Mediterranean. International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA), Aleppo, Syria, iv + 36 pp., ISBN 92-9127-257-4
Type: research report, open access

86 E. De Pauw, B. Rischkowsky, A. Abou-Naga, H.R. Ansari-Renani, I. Boujenane, O. Gursoy. 2011. Using production environment descriptors and GIS tools to identify potential natural environments for animal genetic resources. Final Report of FAO Project “Practical Application of Production Environment Descriptors for Animal Genetic Resources – country case studies for sheep and goat breeds”. ICARDA, Syria, 258 pp.
Type: technical report, made available online in 2025, open access