One might wonder why the term “climate change projections” is generally used instead of “climate change predictions”. The main reason is that the term “prediction” suggests a level of certainty about the future that is unwarranted in the context of climate science. “Projections,” on the other hand, acknowledge the inherent uncertainty and conditionality of future climate responses, which depend on our own mitigation measures. Climate change projections are always presented as potential future climates, based on scenarios that contain different assumptions about socio-economic development, greenhouse gas emissions, and other factors.

The key tools used for generating climate change projections are (1) Global Climate Models (GCMs), (2) Socio-economic scenarios,  and (3) Downscaling.
GCMs provide the large-scale projections, Socio-economic scenarios offer different pathways for how the future might unfold, and Downscaling allows for more detailed, local assessments that can inform policy and decision-making. Together, they form a robust framework for understanding and planning for future climate change impacts.