Given their reliance on weather for their livelihoods, farmers are more likely to observe and possibly detect changes in weather patterns compared to those whose livelihoods are less weather-dependent. They often notice shifts in the onset, duration, or end of growing seasons, altered rainfall patterns, heat waves, and more frequent extreme events. Their observations tend to be short-term and localized, aligning more closely with climatic variability than with long-term climatic change, which typically unfolds over extended periods and manifests on regional or global scales.

Evidence suggests that farmers in many countries struggle to attribute anomalous weather events to either climatic change, variability, or a combination of both. This misalignment with the scientific understanding of climate change has serious implications, as it hinders their ability to adapt farming practices to evolving environmental conditions.

Research into farmers’ perceptions of climate change is therefore essential for both researchers and decision-makers. By linking questionnaire-based interviews and focus group discussions with actual meteorological data, it is possible to assess the degree of alignment between reality and perception. Trends in meteorological data serve as indicators of past changes, which can then be compared with older farmers’ perceptions of climate shifts over the past 20 to 30 years. This forms the theoretical basis for farmer perception surveys.

A case study in Jordan, conducted under the IFAD-funded project “Improving Food Security and Climate Change Adaptability of Livestock Producers Using the Rainfed Barley-Based System in Iraq and Jordan,” provided insights into the alignment between farmer perceptions of climate change and observed rainfall trends from meteorological records.

For more info on this case study check out page Comparing farmer perceptions and realities of climate change in Jordan