2.1.5.4.2.3.1.2. Expected positive impacts under the SSP245 scenario

2.1.5.4.2.3.1.2. Expected positive impacts under scenario SSP245

Pathway SSP245 may have potential positive effects in some regions and sectors, depending on local conditions and the ability to adapt. These may include (Table 17):

Climate-driven themesExpected impacts
Agriculture and growing seasons• Extended Growing Seasons: In some temperate regions, the warming climate may extend the growing season, potentially allowing for multiple harvests per year and increased agricultural productivity​.
• Areas that were previously too cold for certain crops may become suitable for cultivation, expanding the range of crops that can be grown​.
Energy demand• Warmer winters in higher-latitude regions may reduce the demand for heating, leading to lower energy consumption and heating costs​.
• Longer and hotter summers could increase the potential for solar energy generation in certain regions​.
Biodiversity and ecosystem services• Some species may benefit from warmer temperatures and expanded habitats, potentially increasing biodiversity in certain regions​.
• In some areas, higher CO2 levels can stimulate plant growth, leading to more robust forests, though this is highly dependent on water availability and other factors​.
Economic opportunities• Regions that become warmer may see an increase in tourism, particularly in areas that were previously too cold for certain recreational activities​.
• Melting Arctic ice may open up new northern shipping routes, reducing travel time and costs for global shipping​
Health benefitsWarmer temperatures could lead to fewer cold-related health issues and fatalities, such as hypothermia and respiratory problems associated with cold weather​.
Water availabilitySome regions may experience increased rainfall, potentially improving water availability for agriculture, industry, and domestic use​.
Table 17. Expected positive impacts under scenario SSP245

While the SSP2-4.5 pathway suggests significant impacts of climate change, these may be more manageable compared to higher emission scenarios, subject to proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the adverse effects and protect vulnerable communities and ecosystems (Table 18).

Pathway to resilienceAdaptation strategies
Sustainable agricultural practicesImplementing adaptive agricultural practices to maximize the benefits of extended growing seasons and new cropping opportunities.
Renewable energy investmentsInvesting in renewable energy infrastructure to take advantage of increased solar and wind energy potential.
Ecological managementManaging ecosystems to enhance positive biodiversity impacts, such as conservation efforts to support species that benefit from warmer temperatures.
Infrastructure developmentTo support increased tourism and new shipping routes, ensuring they are sustainable and environmentally friendly.
Table 18.  Recommended adaptation strategies to capitalize on potential positive impacts under scenario SSP245