Under the SSP2-4.5 pathway, the world is expected to experience moderate climate change impacts, which are likely to increase the incidence and severity of natural disasters such as droughts, floods, forest fires, sea-level rise, plant pests, and diseases. Expected negative effects are (Table 15):

Hazard	Expectations
Droughts	• Droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe in many regions, especially in semi-arid and arid areas. This will result from changes in precipitation patterns and increased evaporation due to higher temperatures​. • The agricultural sector is expected to have to cope with reduced crop yields and increased water stress for both crops and livestock, leading to potential food security issues.
Floods	• While overall precipitation may not increase significantly, the intensity of rainfall events is likely to rise, leading to more frequent and severe flooding, particularly in regions already prone to heavy rains​. • Flood risks are likely to increase strongly in urban areas with poor drainage systems and coastal areas due to sea-level rise and storm surges​.
Forest fires	• Higher temperatures and prolonged dry periods will increase the risk and extent of forest fires, especially in regions such as the Mediterranean, western North America, and Australia. • Wildfires will not only devastate natural ecosystems but also pose significant risks to human health, property, and infrastructure​.
Sea-level rise	• Sea levels are expected to continue rising, albeit at a moderate rate compared to higher emission scenarios. By 2100, sea levels could rise by approximately 0.5 to 1 meter, depending on the region​. • Coastal erosion and more frequent and severe coastal flooding are expected, leading to saltwater intrusion into freshwater systems.
Plant pests and diseases	Warmer temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will create favorable conditions for many pests and plant diseases to expand their range and become more virulent​.

While the SSP2-4.5 pathway suggests significant impacts of climate change, these may be more manageable compared to higher emission scenarios, subject to proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the adverse effects and protect vulnerable communities and ecosystems (Table 16).

Sector	Strategies
Infrastructure improvements	Enhancing flood defenses, improving water management systems, and upgrading urban infrastructure to cope with more extreme weather events
Agricultural adaptation	Implementing sustainable agricultural practices, such as drought-resistant crops and improved irrigation techniques, can help mitigate some impacts on food security.
Forest management	Reducing wildfire risks through Improved forest management practices, including controlled burns and better monitoring.
Coastal protection	Building sea walls, restoring mangroves, and other coastal protection measures to counter sea-level rise impacts.
Health monitoring	Strengthening pest and disease monitoring and management systems to protect agriculture and natural ecosystems.